Megatrends and African Security Implications

There are several factors that will shape Africa’s peace and security and the trajectory of change in the near and long term. These factors include a web of complex, multifaceted, and everchanging security threats including but not limited to transnational organized crime, violent conflicts, violent extremism and terrorism, cyber threats, maritime threats, state fragility, and pandemics. These security threats will be exacerbated by megatrends such as demographic and social change, urbanization and the rising middle class, climate change, and the advancement of digital and information- technology. Moreover, these security threats and megatrends, are accompanied by an underlying current of a rising governance deficit in Africa, in which states themselves have become a source of insecurity.

These trends are inevitable, but their outcomes will depend on African leaders’ strategies and policy responses. Effective response to these trends requires coordinating and collaborating across multiple government agencies and nation states; developing response mechanisms that are flexible, iterative and adaptive; leveraging external partnership; and developing foresight capabilities.

• Which megatrends are most important in your country or sub-region? How do these megatrends interact to influence security outcomes in your country?
• What steps does your country or sub-region need to take to respond to these megatrends? What role should strategic leadership and other security sector leaders play?
• How does the security sector in your country need to adapt to address these long-term challenges? What role should the international community and the regional security architecture play?

Presented by:
Dr. Aloysius Uche Ordu
Dr. Luka Kuol

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